Vancouver, Wash. – A recent poll conducted by Lake Research Partners reveals a tight race in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, with Democratic challenger Carolyn Long virtually tied with Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler. The poll, commissioned by Long’s campaign and released on Friday, indicates Long leading Herrera Beutler by a narrow two-point margin, 45 percent to 43 percent.
Lake Research Partners, the same polling firm that surveyed voters in the district before the primary in June, previously showed Long trailing Herrera Beutler by 5 percentage points. The accuracy of Lake Research Partners’ earlier poll, which closely mirrored the primary results where Herrera Beutler won by 7 points, lends credibility to these new findings.
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Image: Carolyn Long, the Democratic challenger, campaigns against Jaime Herrera Beutler, Republican incumbent, in Washington’s 3rd district, according to a Lake Research Partners poll.
The latest survey by Lake Research Partners involved live telephone interviews with 400 Washington state residents between October 9th and 11th. Lake Research Partners reported a margin of error of 4.9 percent for these results, placing Long’s slight lead within the statistical margin of error. The full polling memorandum from Lake Research Partners is publicly accessible.
Michelle Thimios, Long’s campaign manager, stated in a press release accompanying the poll numbers, “Clearly voters are tired of the same old partisan talking points from our opponent, who has run exclusively negative ads on TV and repeatedly tried to mislead voters about Carolyn’s positions on the issues.” Long’s campaign believes her improved poll performance, as measured by Lake Research Partners, stems from increased support among independent voters. The Lake Research Partners poll indicates Long holds a 10-point lead with independents, capturing 40 percent of their vote compared to Herrera Beutler’s 30 percent.
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The race for southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District has proven to be significantly more competitive than initially anticipated. Carolyn Long demonstrated unexpected strength in the Washington primary, trailing Herrera Beutler by a smaller-than-expected margin of 42 percent to 35 percent.
Since the primary, Long has garnered endorsements from both local and national figures and organizations, including Democratic groups like Emily’s List and former President Barack Obama. This tightening race, highlighted by the recent Lake Research Partners poll, is attracting national media attention and has been identified as a potential district for a Democratic flip in the upcoming November elections.
While data analysis site FiveThirtyEight currently projects the district as leaning Republican, their forecast does not yet incorporate the data from Friday’s poll conducted by Lake Research Partners.
Herrera Beutler’s campaign swiftly dismissed the poll results. “A poll Carolyn Long paid for says she’s ahead — what a surprise,” commented Angeline Riesterer, Herrera Beutler’s spokesperson. “Jaime will win the election.”
Reisterer further asserted that “southwest Washington won’t support a candidate who wants to raise their income taxes,” echoing a central theme of Herrera Beutler’s campaign.
Throughout the campaign, Herrera Beutler has consistently accused Long of supporting a Medicare For All system, claiming it would necessitate trillions of dollars in federal income tax increases. Long refutes this claim, stating her support for reinstating aspects of the Affordable Care Act and exploring a public health insurance option specifically for rural residents.
Herrera Beutler is seeking her fifth term in Congress. In previous election cycles, she has defeated her Democratic challengers by substantial double-digit percentage point margins.
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